WTI Magazine #32    2014 May, 29
Author : Francesca Papasergi      Translation by:

The European elections' turnout was slightly higher than expected: the 58% of Italian voters cast their ballot. Generally speaking, the disaffection for the EU shows the lack of involvement citizens feel toward its institutions, often perceived as a bureaucratic leviathan that slams national interests.

Since they have different premises, characteristics and importance for national issues, general elections and European ones shouldn't be compared lightheartedly. Nonetheless, the former mayor of Florence and current democratic leader was able to gather 2.520.000 votes more than his predecessor, Pierluigi Bersani.

Analysts are still dwelling on the surprising result the Democratic Party reached last Sunday. No one had never been so successful in the Italian republican history so far, except the old White Whale, the Christian Democracy disintegrated by Tangentopoli. Furthermore, since its foundation, the Democratic Party had been gradually but continually drained by abstentionism and other parties. On the contrary, this time it drained Scelta Civica, Mr. Monti's party. What did reverse the trend? Was it the "Renzi Effect"? The "80 euros effect"? We'll never know for sure.

Paradoxically, the poll's verdict locks down Mr. Renzi's doors to general elections. Even if he affirmed he wants to hold on with the extant government, probably he's the only one who's coveting vote right now. His temporary ally in the Italian grosse koalition, Mr. Alfano, had very poor outcomes in this round: he will keep the government alive no matter what, in order not to disappear from the political scenario.

Hard times are going to come for the party's inner factions, too. Mr. Renzi has many opponents on his own side, and now even the toughest ones are apparently changing their mind: the showdown will be neither peaceful nor painless.

If the 5 Stars Movement had a "normal" leader, its result would be considered a success. Basically, it is a confirmation: the loss of nearly 3.000.000 votes is the "physiological" decrease analysts were waiting for, electors just decided to move it up. What went wrong for the 5SM? The use of insults as a trademark and the flaunt about an easy, overwhelming victory didn't work. Erroneously, the leaders seemed to consider every voter as responsive, strong and determined as an activist. Not only it is unlikely, it is impossible.

The Movement's good ideas were cloaked by Mr. Grillo's aggressive, yelling attitude and many representatives didn't stop insulting people around: "Italians like thieves, they want to be scammed; they didn't understand us; if they didn't vote for us, they deserved the earthquake/the flood they had" are some of the absurd accusations they make. In Italian language, offence is "given", not "taken". The 5SM is offending too many people. Will they realize this is not the right strategy to bring back some votes, definitely?

Was it the final defeat for Mr. Berlusconi too? So they say. Forza Italia lost 2.730.000 votes in one year. Its political offer is as weak as its leader, and the party will collapse permanently when he will leave the helm.

The No Euro alliance is as scary as the extremist one. Nigel Farage's UKIP is the first party in Great Britain, and Marine Le Pen's Front National scooped the competitors in France. The radical, xenophobic right recorded a concerning number of votes, and it is going to be the next big issue for the European Parliament. Is Europe more resilient than its detractors?

Southern Europe is confident about it. The triumph of Alexis Tsipras in his country, devastated by Trojka's policies, tells us that the reformist left is still out there in Europe. It could be exactly what it takes to help larger parties enacting both the reforms and the convergence among the Mediterranean power. We need these elements to start the European new deal. The EU must choose. Change, or die. There's no other way.